Donald Trump visar än en gång att han inte bara pratar utan gör slag i saken. Under valkampanjen var han ute och vevade om handelstullar och tonade sedan ner dessa på den här sidan årsskiftet. Fram till i helgen. Tullar mot Kanada och Mexiko är nu i kraft, Kina på tisdag och han sa i fredags kväll följande om EU: “TRUMP: WILL BE DOING A ‘VERY SUBSTANTIAL’ TARIFF ON EUROPEAN UNION”.

Osäkerhet upp = riskpremie upp = risktillgångar ner. Lagom till att amerikanska retail-investerare köpte amerikanska aktier i den snabbaste takten på två år förra veckan.

Nedan följer att par kommentarer kring tarifferna som jag samlat ihop på nätet under dagen.

If tariffs are sustained, Morgan Stanley economists expect the following impact on the US economy: 

1. Boost headline PCE inflation by 0.3-0.6pp (taking headline PCE inflation from 2.6% y/y in December to 2.9-3.1% in the coming months),

2. Depress real consumer spending by 1.6-2.0pp (consumer spending was up 3.2% Q4/Q4 and 4.2% q/q saar in Q4 24, suggesting tariffs could cut the rate of consumer spending roughly in half in 2025);

3. Slow exports and imports by 0.9-1.3pp and 4.6-5.1pp, respectively (real goods exports and imports rose 1.4% and 5.2% Q4/Q4, suggesting tariffs could produce flat trade volumes in 2025);

4. Weigh on real GDP growth by 0.7-1.1pp, cutting the 2.5% Q4/Q4 growth outturn in 2024 by a third to a half. (Morgan Stanley)

Goldman Sachs US Economics Research previously estimated that a sustained 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would increase the effective US tariff rate by 7 percentage points (pp) from the current 3%, implying a 0.7% increase in US core PCE prices and a 0.4% hit to GDP. Additionally, in an Oval Office interview on Friday, President Trump raised the prospect of levying additional tariffs on goods imported from the European Union. These announcements have come as a shock to many investors who expected tariffs would only be imposed if trade negotiations failed.” (GS)

President Trump is simply doing what he promised on the campaign trail. Tariffs are therefore not a surprise. Unwelcomed, perhaps, but not a surprise. Any company affected by these new levies should have planned for them by building inventory in US warehouses. This gives the US economy a 1–2-month buffer on everything except perhaps Canadian energy before higher prices are necessary to offset incremental tariff costs. We believe the US economy is strong enough that a tariff-related set of trade wars will not cause a recession. In the end, this is the only issue that matters to stock prices.” (Data Trek)

We estimate that every 5pp increase in the US tariff rate would reduce S&P 500 EPS by roughly 1-2%. As a result, if sustained, the tariffs announced this weekend would reduce our S&P 500 EPS forecasts by roughly 2-3%, not taking into account any additional impact from major financial conditions tightening or a larger-than-expected effect of policy uncertainty on corporate or consumer behavior. Our economists describe the outlook as unclear but believe there is a substantial probability that the tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be temporary. (GS)

Räkna med fortsatt volatila marknaden så länge som osäkerheten består, eller tills dess att börserna rekylerat så pass att tarifferna är fullt diskonterade. Det tror jag personligen inte på dagens indexnivåer.

Trevlig kväll!