Taaleri: Steady progress towards an improving market - Nordea

Ahead of Taaleri's Q4 results, we revise our underlying estimates to reflect Taaleri's sale of its shares in Aktia and the establishment of the build-to-rent joint venture, which largely cancel each other out for 2025E-26E. We also postpone the majority of our performance fee estimates by one year. For Q4, we expect a 1% y/y decline in continuing earnings and pencil in EUR 5m of performance fees from Wind II-III exits under progress. We model a 5% y/y increase in Garantia's continuing earnings, owing to a decline from an elevated claims ratio in Q4 2023 (-13pp delta y/y). Overall, we forecast EUR 8.6m in EBIT from segments, or EUR 0.9m excluding investments and performance fees. We calculate a raised SOTP-based fair value range of EUR 9.7-11.0 (9.4-10.7) based on 2026E. Marketing material commissioned by Taaleri.