Midsona: Conditions set for margin expansion in '25 - ABG

Minor positive estimate revisions
Margin expansion to be increasingly driven by scale
Trading at '25e EV/EBITA of ~8x


Continues to beat expectations

The Q4 numbers were in line with our estimates on sales but somewhat better on EBIT. According to management, the bulk of the SKU rationalisation process is finished. While we expect some additional operating improvements, we anticipate the expected margin expansion to originate from scale rather than SKU optimisation. Moreover, we see some opportunities for Midsona to pass on incremental cost increases to grocery retailers because of its “preferred supplier”-like status. Since the rights issue in '22, Midsona's cautious approach to contract manufacturing has led to it only retaining profitable contracts — a behaviour we expect will continue.