Green Landscaping Group: Mild winter is a warning blinker - ABG

Q4: -6% org. sales growth, 2% adj. EBITA growth, strong cash flow
'25e-'26e adj. EBITA down 5-3%; 7% CAGR '24-'27e
10-9x EBITA '25e-'26e, 8-11% FCF yields


Sweden remains challenging

Green Landscaping Group (GLG) delivered a soft Q4 with sales 1-3% below ABGSCe/FactSet cons, as organic sales was -6% (ABGSCe 0%, cons. +1%, +3% Q3'24), due to less snow-related demand and a challenging Swedish market. Adj. EBITA grew 2% y-o-y, but came in 7-8% below expectations due to competitive pressure, a credit loss provision, and company-specific headwinds in Sweden (we estimate an underlying margin in Sweden of 5.4%, vs. reported 3.1%). Norway and RoE (21% margin vs. cons. 17.2%) continued to perform well. As the weather continues to be mild, we expect adj. EBITA to decline 36% y-o-y in Q1'25, before recovering to ~17% growth in Q2-Q4'25e, supported by a return to stable organic growth of 2-4%. Cash flow was strong, and yielded a pro forma gearing of 2.5x, in-line with GLG's target. This should in turn support >8% earnings growth potential from 2025, considering GLG's active, and margin-accretive, M&A agenda.