Atria: Another strong quarter driven by mix and efficiency measures - Nordea

Atria reported Q3 adjusted EBIT of EUR 25.8m, 35% (EUR 6.6m) above LSEG Data & Analytics consensus. Q3 net sales of EUR 439m were up 2% y/y and came in line with consensus. Q3 EBIT beat to our estimates came from Finland and Sweden while Denmark & Estonia came slightly below our expectation. In Finland, sales declined due to lower feed sales and foodservice sales, while Q3 benefited from a successful barbeque season. Sweden profitability continued to improve clearly, driven by centralization of production last year and higher sales in retail and foodservice. Fierce price competition in Denmark has continue while Estonia sales increased and profitability improved. Operating cash flow was EUR 31m (EUR 10m a year ago). Atria reiterated its guidance and expects 2024 adjusted EBITA to increase from EUR 49.6m in 2023. Consensus has modelled EUR 59.7m, or 20% increase. Initially, driven by strong performance in Q3, we expect consensus to raise 2024 EBIT estimates by some 5-10% with more muted revisions for 2025E-26E. We note strong earnings momentum without any clear signs of easing with new poultry unit fully operational.